Alternative Future Senarios of Climate Change in Oregon

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QXIac7YJf-8

Research-driven scenarios demonstrate how foresight tools can help communities imagine and design a more equitable and sustainable future—one that works for both people and the environment.~ Rachel Hatch, Chief Operating Officer, IFTF

On December 11, 2024, the Institute for the Future (IFTF) published a study: Oregon 2035: Four Alternative Scenarios on climate change. This alternative futures project was a collaborative effort involving policy advocates, community members, and partners from 1000 Friends of Oregon with futurists and creatives at IFTF.

Each of these four alternative scenarios touches on the economy, technology, transportation, environment, society, and politics. IFTF summarized their scenarios in four brief but spectacular YouTube videos. They are neither forecasts nor predictions of the future, but provocations for engaged discussion. Click on the underlined hyperlinks below to view these thought-provoking videos:

1. A Growth Future: INSATIABLE (A future driven by the desire for continued economic growth, even at the expense of equality and sustainability.)

2. A Collapse Future: SCRATCH (A future ravaged by climate, economic disparities, and breakdown of core systems.)

3. A Constraint Future: PRUNING (A future driven by difficult choices and the acceptance of fewer individual freedoms for the benefit of all.)

4. A Transformation Future: LIMINAL (A future accelerated by technological breakthroughs and a re-definition of reality.)

Download the IFTF document, Oregon 2035: Four Alternative Scenarios Prepared by Institute for the Future for 1000 Friends of Oregon here.

Also, be sure to download HORIZON SCAN FOR 1000 FRIENDS OF OREGON.

What future do you think is most likely? How can we best prepare?

What future would you like to see happen in Oregon? What can we do about it?

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1000 Friends of Oregon is now over 50 years old. It was founded by Henry Richmond and Governor Tom McCall in 1974. The previous year, Governor McCall had signed Senate Bill 100 into law, creating Oregon’s iconic land use planning system. He and a young attorney named Henry Richmond realized that the fledgling legislation would need a champion – or rather, 1000 champions.1000 Friends of Oregon works with Oregonians to enhance our shared quality of life by building livable urban and rural communities, protecting family farms and forests, and conserving natural areas. Since 1974, 1000 Friends has worked to protect and improve Oregon’s unique, statewide

land use planning program through education, policy advocacy, coalition building, and strategic litigation. 1000 Friends of Oregon is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization headquartered in Portland, Oregon. The non-profit organization's current Executive Director is Sam Diaz.

Our mission is to promote healthy working lands, great communities, shared prosperity, and a strong democracy with and for all Oregonians.

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I am not a scientist, so I asked Google Gemini: "What are the specific impacts of climate change in Oregon, and what is the forecast for the next 10 years?"

Gemini replied: "Oregon is already experiencing significant climate impacts, which are projected to intensify in the next decade, primarily characterized by increased heat, severe wildfires, and altered water resources. 

Specific Impacts of Climate Change in Oregon

• Extreme Heat: The frequency, duration, and intensity of heat waves are increasing significantly. The 2021 heat dome event, which caused numerous deaths, is projected to increase in frequency to as often as once every six years by the end of the century.

• Wildfires: Warmer temperatures, reduced snowpack, and drier summers are leading to more frequent, larger, and more damaging wildfires. The area burned by wildfire each year has increased over the past 35 years, threatening communities, infrastructure, and air quality with smoke pollution.

• Water Resources:

  • Reduced Snowpack: Warmer winters mean more precipitation falls as rain instead of snow, leading to significantly reduced snowpack in the Cascades. This is expected to decline by as much as 40% by 2040 in early spring.

  • Drought and Flooding: The state is facing longer, more severe summer droughts interspersed with more intense winter precipitation events (atmospheric rivers), increasing the risk of both water scarcity and major flooding/landslides.

• Coastal and Ocean Impacts: Sea levels are rising, increasing the risk of coastal erosion, storm surges, and saltwater intrusion into freshwater supplies. The ocean is also becoming warmer and more acidic, impacting commercial fisheries like Dungeness crab and salmon.

• Ecosystem and Health Impacts: Climate changes disrupt natural systems, leading to shifts in plant and animal distributions, increased pests and diseases in forests, and public health issues such as heat-related illnesses and respiratory problems from wildfire smoke. 

Forecast for the Next 10 Years (through~2035)

In the immediate future, these trends are expected to accelerate.

• Temperature: Average annual temperatures are expected to continue rising, with summers warming more than other seasons. The number of days above 90°F will increase in many inland areas.

• Precipitation: Winters are likely to be slightly wetter, while summers will continue to be drier. Extreme precipitation events in autumn and winter are projected to increase in intensity.

• Wildfire Activity: From 2035 onward, projections for the western Cascades suggest wildfire activity could be at least twice as intense as in recent decades.

• Water Management Challenges: Reduced snowpack will continue to challenge water supply management for irrigation, municipal use, and maintaining streamflows for aquatic species. 

  
  

State agencies and researchers are increasingly confident in these projections, emphasizing the need for robust adaptation strategies across various sectors, from energy systems to public health infrastructure. "